Biotech

IQVIA’s March 2026 outlook projects the global medicines market at approximately US$2.6 trillion in 2030, before the full effect of rebates and discounts. This covers medicines broadly, not biotech alone and certainly not the market for one treatment. A rare-disease therapy and an obesity medicine reach very different patient populations.

A useful treatment-level market estimate starts with diagnosed patients who meet the approved indication, then considers access, treatment duration and the net price actually received. It must allow for alternatives and patients who cannot receive the treatment. Multiplying everyone with a disease by a headline list price overstates the reachable market.

Gene therapies continue to reach specific approved uses. Itvisma received EU authorisation on 30 June 2026 for a defined genetic form of spinal muscular atrophy in patients aged two and older. It delivers a functional copy of the SMN1 gene. The authorisation is a concrete regulatory milestone; it does not establish access or reimbursement in every country.

Getting a treatment to patients takes more than a successful experiment. Manufacturers need to produce enough doses with consistent quality, and specialist centres must be able to deliver them. How long the benefits last also matters. Earlier-stage programmes still need controlled evidence and safety follow-up. An exciting mechanism and a successful product belong on the same journey, but at different stops.